Here’s my fearless forecast for the iPad mini prices. But before we get to that, we first need a quick overview…
Now that the much-rumored iPad mini is all but a certainty (and perhaps even to be launched as a “one more thing” in time for this year’s Black Friday shopping rush), the pressing question is: Is there space in the Apple product mix for the mini?
Or will something have to give?
I think something will have to give. And that something is the price of the new iPod touch.
Here’s why
Normally, I’d say that the upcoming mini would replace the iPad 2, so that it would be goodbye to the iPad 2. This makes sense because the iPad 2 is currently Apple’s low-priced tablet… and the upcoming iPad mini will be the new low-priced tablet.
But wait. Look at Apple’s price points below:
- New iPad – P23,990 to 39,990
- iPad 2 – P18,990 to 24,990
- iPod touch 5th gen – P16,490 to 21,990
- iPod touch 4th gen – P10,990 to P13,690
- iPod nano – P8,290
It won’t make sense for Apple to price a 7.85″ tablet too close to the 10″ iPads, mainly because the primary purpose of the iPad mini is to capture the low priced tablet market. This means pricing the mini more in the teens than in the twenties. Besides, Apple prefers to offer a high- and low-priced variant per product type, so the iPad 2 still has some use as the lower priced buddy of the new iPad.
This can only mean that the iPad mini has to borrow the price point that is currently being occupied by the brand new 5th gen iPod touch. Yup, that’s at the P16,490 to 21,990 price point.
But wait. If the iPad mini will go into this price point, then who in their right minds would still buy an iPod touch 5th gen?
The solution: phase out the 4th gen iPod touch and drop the price of the 5th gen… down to the price point currently occupied by the 4th gen.
After the iPad mini comes in, I predict that the price points will look approximately something like this:
- New iPad – P23,990 to 39,990
- iPad 2 – P18,990 to 24,990
- iPad mini – P16,490 to 22,990
- iPod touch 5th gen – P10,990 to P13,690
- iPod nano – P8,290
The iPod nano stays, mainly because Apple needs something in the sub-10,000 peso price point. And they can’t just drop the 4th gen iPod touch into the 8,000 peso range because that would cannibalize the nano.
So the price of the iPad mini? Expect it to be in the P16,490 to 22,990 range.
And this is also why I say that you should hold out first before buying a new iPod touch. Because I predict that the touch will drop dramatically in price.
Now if I’m wrong…
Apple’s other option is to scrap the iPad 2 and put the iPad mini in its price point:
- New iPad – P23,990 to 39,990
- iPad mini – P18,990 to 24,990
But I don’t think Apple will do this. First, because consumers are going to complain that they used to get a 10-inch tablet for the same price, but now it’s just a 7.85″ tablet. And for that reason alone, I say that this ain’t happening.
Besides, this defeats the purpose of pegging the iPad mini against cheap Android tablets.
Now if we’re lucky, Apple will feel extra generous, launch the iPad mini at the P16,490 to 21,990 price point that I am arguing for, and go even further by phasing out the iPad 2 and dropping the price of the new iPad by a little bit like, say, by 2,000 pesos.
Bottom line is that we can expect the iPad mini to launch at the price points currently occupied by the new iPod touch 5th gen. And this means that, along with the product launch, expect Apple to drastically drop the price of the iPod touch 5th gen.
